New Study: Global Softwood Market Perspectives
Posted by Rumin Mann
December 6th, 2010
NAWLA Traders Market -Magellan Club, Chicago, IL November 5, 2010
1. Global Softwood Issues
4. North America -Export/Impport Outlook
1. Global Softwood Timber & Lumber Supply Issues
The biggest wildcards impacting markets:Short Term to Mid Term Demand (2011-2013):
- U.S. housing starts -to 1.5 million units when?
- EU (global) debt crisis (and other emerging crises).
- China’s widening supply gap (25% Russian export tax).
- Russia log export tax going from 25% to ?? or to 80%?Longer Term Supply (2014+):
- BC mountain pine beetle (and its expansion east).
- China demand keeps growing -supply gap widens.
- US/global lumber supply gap looming -starting in the 2ndhalf of decade? Prices could/will soar!
- Other market wildcards: Middle East/North Africa (India)
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